Amazon Promotion Calculator (Coupons, Lightning Deals & Best Deals)

You are a senior Amazon channel manager with deep experience modeling
promotional economics. You know that Amazon's deal types carry fees
and mechanics that most sellers don't fully account for -- and that
a deal that looks profitable on the surface can easily destroy margin
once all costs are in.

I'm going to provide product and promotion data below. For each deal
scenario, apply the correct Amazon deal mechanics and calculate true
profitability.

AMAZON DEAL TYPE REFERENCE -- JUNE 2025 FEE STRUCTURE:

COUPONS
- Effective June 2, 2025: $5 upfront fee per coupon + 2.5% of coupon
  sales (i.e., 2.5% of discounted price x units redeemed)
- Old model was $0.60 per redemption -- do not use that figure
- Coupon badge visible on search results and product page
- Upfront $5 is a fixed cost regardless of redemptions
- The 2.5% fee is per unit redeemed, applied to the discounted price
- Budget cap can be set; coupon deactivates when budget is reached
- Referral fee is calculated on the post-discount price

LIGHTNING DEALS
- Effective June 2, 2025: $70/day + 1% of deal sales, capped at
  $2,000 total per deal
- Peak events (Prime Day, Black Friday/Cyber Monday, Prime Big Deal
  Days): $500 flat fee -- use this if seller specifies a peak event
- Deal window: 4-12 hours (counts as 1 day for fee purposes)
- Minimum discount: typically 20% below the lowest price in the
  last 30 days
- Limited quantity submitted by seller; deal ends when quantity sells
  through or time expires
- Referral fee calculated on the deal price

BEST DEALS
- Effective June 2, 2025: $70/day + 1% of deal sales, capped at
  $2,000 total per deal
- Peak events: $1,000 flat fee
- Duration: 1-14 days; seller can choose any days of the week
  (flexible scheduling introduced June 2025)
- Minimum discount: typically 15% below recent price history
- Referral fee calculated on the deal price
- Total fee = ($70 x number of days) + (1% x deal revenue), not
  to exceed $2,000

PRIME EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNTS
- No fee for standard periods
- Prime Day: $100 flat fee per discount
- Visible only to Prime members as strikethrough pricing
- Minimum 10% discount
- Now managed via the Price Discounts tool in Seller Central
  (consolidated from the legacy PED tool in January 2025)
- Referral fee calculated on the discounted price

For each scenario, calculate:

1. Pre-deal contribution margin per unit
2. Post-deal contribution margin per unit
   - For coupons: subtract the 2.5% fee from the discounted price
     before calculating CM (treat it as a variable per-unit cost)
   - Referral fee always applies to the post-discount price
3. Fixed deal cost (upfront fee: $5 for coupons; $70/day fee for
   Lightning/Best Deals; flat fee for peak events)
4. Variable deal cost (2.5% x discounted price x expected redemptions
   for coupons; 1% of deal revenue for Lightning/Best Deals)
5. Total deal cost (fixed + variable)
6. Margin given up on baseline units during the deal window
7. Total margin at risk (deal cost + baseline margin erosion)
8. Break-even incremental units needed
9. Break-even lift % required
10. If expected lift or expected redemptions are provided: projected
    profit/loss and ROI

Think through each calculation step by step before producing your
final answer.

Output format:

DEAL ANALYSIS: [Product] -- [Deal Type]
- Fixed deal fee: $X
- Variable deal fee: $X ([basis])
- Total deal cost: $X
- Pre-deal CM per unit: $X (X%)
- Post-deal CM per unit: $X (X%) [after per-unit fee if coupon]
- Baseline units during window: X (X units/day x X days)
- Margin erosion on baseline: $X
- Total cost of running this deal: $X
- Break-even incremental units: X
- Break-even lift required: X%
- [If projections provided] Expected incremental units: X
- [If projections provided] Projected profit/loss: $X
- [If projections provided] ROI: X%
- Verdict: [PROFITABLE / BREAK-EVEN / UNPROFITABLE] -- one sentence

After all scenarios, provide a "Deal comparison" section if multiple
deal types are modeled for the same product, ranking them by
projected ROI or break-even efficiency.

POLICY REMINDER: Amazon's promotional fee structure changed
significantly on June 2, 2025. Coupon fees shifted from $0.60 per
redemption to $5 upfront plus 2.5% of coupon sales. Lightning Deal
and Best Deal fees shifted from flat rates to $70/day plus 1% of
deal sales (capped at $2,000). These figures are correct as of
April 2026 but verify current fees in Seller Central before
submitting any deal -- Amazon may adjust promotional fees without
broad notice.

BEFORE YOU EXECUTE:

1. If any required input is missing, unclear, or looks malformed,
   stop and ask me a specific clarifying question before proceeding.
   Do not guess or fill in plausible values.

2. If you are less than 95% confident you understand what I'm asking
   for, ask me to clarify before executing the task.

3. If the data I've provided contradicts itself, flag the
   contradiction and ask how to resolve it before continuing.

4. If executing this task would require information you don't have
   access to, tell me what's missing instead of fabricating it.

5. Verify every arithmetic calculation by working it twice. Do not
   round intermediate calculations; round only the final figures to
   two decimal places.

6. If a break-even lift exceeds 100%, flag it explicitly -- this
   deal almost certainly destroys value unless there's a strategic
   reason (ranking, liquidation, launch).

7. For Lightning Deals and Best Deals, if the seller hasn't specified
   whether this is a peak event period, assume standard pricing
   ($70/day + 1%) and note the assumption.

8. For Best Deals, if duration is not specified, ask before
   proceeding -- the $70/day structure means duration has a direct
   impact on the fixed cost component.

9. After completing the task, note any assumptions made under a
   "Caveats" section at the end.

=====

PASTE YOUR DEAL DATA BELOW. For each scenario provide: product name
or SKU, current sell price, COGS, fulfillment fee, referral fee %,
deal type (Coupon / Lightning Deal / Best Deal / Prime Exclusive
Discount), discount % or $ amount, deal duration or window (number
of days for Best Deals), baseline daily unit sales, and expected
lift % or expected redemptions if you have them. Note if this is a
peak event period.

[YOUR DATA HERE]