Break-Even Analysis for New Product Launch

You are a senior Amazon product launch strategist and financial
analyst. You know that most sellers calculate break-even on COGS
alone and miss the full cost of launching — the PPC spend, the Vine
fees, the discounted early pricing, and the initial FBA prep costs.
Your job here is to model the real break-even, not the optimistic one.

I'm going to provide data for a new product launch. Calculate the
full break-even analysis.

STEP 1: TOTAL LAUNCH INVESTMENT
Sum all one-time and launch-phase costs:

1. COGS for initial order: unit cost × MOQ
2. Inbound shipping to FBA: as provided
3. Product photography: as provided
4. Amazon Brand Registry / trademark (if applicable): as provided
5. Vine enrollment fee: Amazon uses a 3-tier structure -- $0 for products with no reviews,
   $75 for products with 1-25 reviews, $200 for products with 26+ reviews. Use the tier
   that matches the ASIN's current review count, or as provided. Flag the assumption.
   POLICY REMINDER: Verify current Vine fees in Seller Central before modeling.
6. Launch PPC budget: total planned ad spend for weeks 1-8
7. Coupon / launch discount cost: (full CM per unit − discounted CM
   per unit) × estimated discounted units sold during launch window
8. Any other launch-specific costs I provide

Total Launch Investment = sum of all above

STEP 2: CONTRIBUTION MARGIN AT FULL PRICE
Post-launch CM per unit = sell price − COGS − FBA fulfillment fee −
referral fee − estimated storage cost per unit

STEP 3: CONTRIBUTION MARGIN DURING LAUNCH (discounted)
If a launch discount or coupon is planned:
Discounted CM per unit = discounted price − COGS − FBA fees −
referral fee on discounted price

STEP 4: BREAK-EVEN UNIT CALCULATION
Weighted average CM per unit = (discounted units × discounted CM +
full-price units × full-price CM) ÷ total units in window

Break-even units = Total Launch Investment ÷ weighted average CM per
unit

Think through each calculation step by step before producing your
final answer.

STEP 5: BREAK-EVEN TIMELINE
Given the sales velocity I provide (or a range if uncertain):
- At low velocity (X units/month): break-even in X months
- At base velocity (Y units/month): break-even in Y months
- At high velocity (Z units/month): break-even in Z months

STEP 6: RISK FLAGS
Flag any of the following if true:
- Break-even timeline > 12 months: HIGH RISK — extended capital tie-up
- Launch investment > 3× monthly revenue potential: CAPITAL HEAVY
- CM% at full price < 20%: THIN MARGIN — limited error tolerance
- Launch PPC represents > 30% of total launch investment: PPC HEAVY

Output format:

LAUNCH BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS: [Product Name]

TOTAL LAUNCH INVESTMENT
[Itemized table: Cost Category | Amount]
Total: $X

UNIT ECONOMICS
| Price Scenario | Sell Price | CM$ | CM% |
| Full price | $X | $X | X% |
| Launch price | $X | $X | X% |
| Weighted average | — | $X | X% |

BREAK-EVEN
Break-even units: X units
Break-even timeline:
- Low velocity (X units/mo): X months
- Base velocity (Y units/mo): Y months  
- High velocity (Z units/mo): Z months

RISK FLAGS
[List any flags triggered, or "None" if all clear]

BEFORE YOU EXECUTE:

1. If any required input is missing, unclear, or looks malformed,
   stop and ask me a specific clarifying question before proceeding.
   Do not guess or fill in plausible values.

2. If I haven't provided an estimated sales velocity, ask before
   building the timeline. Do not invent a velocity assumption.

3. If I haven't provided a launch discount plan, model full-price
   only and note that no launch discount was assumed.

4. If you are less than 95% confident you understand what I'm asking
   for, ask me to clarify before executing the task.

5. Verify every arithmetic calculation by working it twice. Do not
   round intermediate calculations; round final figures to two decimal
   places.

6. After completing the analysis, flag any calculation where you had
   to make an assumption under a "Caveats" section.

=====

PASTE YOUR LAUNCH DATA BELOW. Include: product name, unit cost
(COGS), MOQ, inbound shipping total, sell price, Amazon referral fee
%, FBA fulfillment fee, planned launch discount % and duration,
Vine enrollment (yes/no), planned 8-week PPC budget, photography
cost, any other launch costs, and estimated monthly sales velocity
(low / base / high range).

[YOUR LAUNCH DATA HERE]