The Prompt
Copy and paste into your AI tool
You are a senior Amazon product launch strategist and financial analyst. You know that most sellers calculate break-even on COGS alone and miss the full cost of launching — the PPC spend, the Vine fees, the discounted early pricing, and the initial FBA prep costs. Your job here is to model the real break-even, not the optimistic one. I'm going to provide data for a new product launch. Calculate the full break-even analysis. STEP 1: TOTAL LAUNCH INVESTMENT Sum all one-time and launch-phase costs: 1. COGS for initial order: unit cost × MOQ 2. Inbound shipping to FBA: as provided 3. Product photography: as provided 4. Amazon Brand Registry / trademark (if applicable): as provided 5. Vine enrollment fee: Amazon uses a 3-tier structure -- $0 for products with no reviews, $75 for products with 1-25 reviews, $200 for products with 26+ reviews. Use the tier that matches the ASIN's current review count, or as provided. Flag the assumption. POLICY REMINDER: Verify current Vine fees in Seller Central before modeling. 6. Launch PPC budget: total planned ad spend for weeks 1-8 7. Coupon / launch discount cost: (full CM per unit − discounted CM per unit) × estimated discounted units sold during launch window 8. Any other launch-specific costs I provide Total Launch Investment = sum of all above STEP 2: CONTRIBUTION MARGIN AT FULL PRICE Post-launch CM per unit = sell price − COGS − FBA fulfillment fee − referral fee − estimated storage cost per unit STEP 3: CONTRIBUTION MARGIN DURING LAUNCH (discounted) If a launch discount or coupon is planned: Discounted CM per unit = discounted price − COGS − FBA fees − referral fee on discounted price STEP 4: BREAK-EVEN UNIT CALCULATION Weighted average CM per unit = (discounted units × discounted CM + full-price units × full-price CM) ÷ total units in window Break-even units = Total Launch Investment ÷ weighted average CM per unit Think through each calculation step by step before producing your final answer. STEP 5: BREAK-EVEN TIMELINE Given the sales velocity I provide (or a range if uncertain): - At low velocity (X units/month): break-even in X months - At base velocity (Y units/month): break-even in Y months - At high velocity (Z units/month): break-even in Z months STEP 6: RISK FLAGS Flag any of the following if true: - Break-even timeline > 12 months: HIGH RISK — extended capital tie-up - Launch investment > 3× monthly revenue potential: CAPITAL HEAVY - CM% at full price < 20%: THIN MARGIN — limited error tolerance - Launch PPC represents > 30% of total launch investment: PPC HEAVY Output format: LAUNCH BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS: [Product Name] TOTAL LAUNCH INVESTMENT [Itemized table: Cost Category | Amount] Total: $X UNIT ECONOMICS | Price Scenario | Sell Price | CM$ | CM% | | Full price | $X | $X | X% | | Launch price | $X | $X | X% | | Weighted average | — | $X | X% | BREAK-EVEN Break-even units: X units Break-even timeline: - Low velocity (X units/mo): X months - Base velocity (Y units/mo): Y months - High velocity (Z units/mo): Z months RISK FLAGS [List any flags triggered, or "None" if all clear] BEFORE YOU EXECUTE: 1. If any required input is missing, unclear, or looks malformed, stop and ask me a specific clarifying question before proceeding. Do not guess or fill in plausible values. 2. If I haven't provided an estimated sales velocity, ask before building the timeline. Do not invent a velocity assumption. 3. If I haven't provided a launch discount plan, model full-price only and note that no launch discount was assumed. 4. If you are less than 95% confident you understand what I'm asking for, ask me to clarify before executing the task. 5. Verify every arithmetic calculation by working it twice. Do not round intermediate calculations; round final figures to two decimal places. 6. After completing the analysis, flag any calculation where you had to make an assumption under a "Caveats" section. ===== PASTE YOUR LAUNCH DATA BELOW. Include: product name, unit cost (COGS), MOQ, inbound shipping total, sell price, Amazon referral fee %, FBA fulfillment fee, planned launch discount % and duration, Vine enrollment (yes/no), planned 8-week PPC budget, photography cost, any other launch costs, and estimated monthly sales velocity (low / base / high range). [YOUR LAUNCH DATA HERE]
Example Input
What you'd paste after the divider
Product: Silicone baking mat set (2-pack) Unit cost (COGS): $5.80 MOQ: 500 units Inbound shipping to FBA: $480 total Sell price: $22.99 Amazon referral fee: 15% FBA fulfillment fee: $4.10 Launch discount: 20% off for first 3 weeks (approx. 90 units) Vine enrollment: Yes ($200) 8-week PPC budget: $1,200 Photography: $350 Monthly storage estimate: $0.10/unit Estimated velocity: - Low: 120 units/month - Base: 180 units/month - High: 250 units/month
Tips
01
Most sellers forget to include PPC spend in their break-even model. Launch PPC is a real cost of getting to organic rank — treat it like COGS for the purpose of this calculation.
02
The break-even timeline is more useful than the break-even unit count. If you have a 9-month break-even and $15,000 tied up in inventory, ask whether that capital could generate a better return somewhere else in your catalog.
03
Run this analysis before placing the production order, not after. The goal is to walk away from bad products before you write the check, not to feel better about a decision you've already made.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Break-Even Analysis for New Product Launch prompt do?
Before you commit to a first production run, know exactly how many units you need to sell — and how long it will take — to recover your launch investment. Accounts for COGS, landing costs, launch PPC spend, Vine fees, and the margin-compressed early months when you're discounting to build rank.
What data do I need to use this prompt?
An example of the exact input format is provided on this page under "Example Input." Generally you'll prepare your data in the structure shown, paste it after the prompt body, and the AI will return the analysis described above. If you're missing any inputs, the prompt will ask you what it needs.
How long does this take to set up?
Setup time for this prompt is < 30 mins. That includes pulling your data, formatting it to match the example, and running the prompt. Once your data pipeline is set up the first time, subsequent runs take only a few minutes.
Which AI tool should I use this with?
This prompt is designed to work with any major large language model — ChatGPT (GPT-4 or newer), Claude (Sonnet 4 or newer), or Gemini. For structured analysis, math, and tabular outputs, Claude and GPT-4 class models produce the most reliable results.
Does this prompt work for Shopify or other platforms?
This prompt is built for Amazon sellers and references Amazon-specific data points such as referral fees, FBA fulfillment fees, and ASIN-level metrics. The underlying methodology can be adapted to other platforms by substituting equivalent inputs, but the prompt as written is Amazon-first.
What skill level is required to use this prompt?
This prompt is rated intermediate. Some familiarity with your platform's data exports and basic AI prompting is helpful for getting the most out of it. Most ecommerce operators can use it productively within a single session.
Is this prompt free to use?
Yes. Every prompt in the SMB Advantage Prompt Library is free for any small business operator to use. The only cost is whatever you pay for your AI tool subscription (ChatGPT Plus, Claude Pro, etc.).
Stay in the loop
Want notes when new prompts ship?
A few times a week, field notes on what's actually working when AI meets ecommerce ops. Plus first look at new prompts and tools as they go live.
Related Tool
Related Prompts